1. Elliott Wave Theory
1.1 What is Elliott Wave Theory?
Inspired by the Dow Theory and by observations found throughout nature, Elliott concluded that the movement of the stock market could be predicted by observing and identifying a repetitive pattern of waves. The Dow Theory is widely considered one of the earliest forms of technical analysis.
It was originally promulgated by Charles H. Dow who noticed that stocks tended to move up or down in trends, and they tend to move together, although the extent of their movements could vary.
In 1897, Charles Dow developed two broad market averages, today are now known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average.
The overall goal of the Dow Theory is to identify the market's primary trend through proof and confirmation.
The Dow Theory attempts to identify the primary trend a market is in. It comprises three primary trends, each made up of secondary and minor trends. The theory assumes that the market already has knowledge of every possible factor and that prices reflect current information. This implies that there is no need to investigate further why assets are priced the way they are but to act on price movements and volume and depend on signals and confirmation for trend reversals.
Dow's Theory resulted from a series of articles published by Charles Dow in The Wall Street Journal between 1900 and 1902.
1.2 Ralph Nelson Elliott Wave Theory
In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott found that the markets showed certain repeated patterns. The Elliott Wave Theory is a method of technical analysis that identifies repeating price patterns according to investor sentiment and psychology. The major discovery made by R.N. Elliott in the 1930s was a phenomenon of repeating patterns regularly played out by financial markets.
More than eighty years ago he studied self-made charts of the US Industrials stock index and discovered that any major trend either up or down had a similar structure that could be subdivided into five distinctive “waves”.
In the direction of the trend, expect five waves and any corrections against the trend are in three waves. With the help of C. J. Collins, Elliott’s ideas received the attention of Wall Street in a series of articles published in the Financial World magazine in 1939.
During the 1950s and 1960s (after Elliott’s passing), his work was advanced by Hamilton Bolton. In 1960, Bolton wrote Elliott Wave Principle–A Critical Appraisal. This was the first significant work since Elliott’s passing.
In 1978, Robert Prechter and A. J. Frost collaborated to write the book Elliott Wave Principle.
Today, Robert Prechter has taken up Elliott’s mantle and leads a new generation of so-called “Ellioticians”, applying his theory to today’s financial markets. High-profile practitioners include Prechter, Jack Schwager, and billionaire Paul Tudor Jones.
1.3 Elliott Wave Theory Patterns
An Elliott Wave Theory has two basic phases of concepts -
An impulse or motive phase
A reactionary or corrective phase
There are five waves in the direction of the main trend followed by three corrective waves
The basic pattern is made up of eight waves (five up and three down) which are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, and c.
Elliott proposed a theory according to which waves 1, 3, and 5 of the five wave fractal are themselves subdivided into five waves of a smaller size ( sub waves i, ii, iii, iv, and v ).
Waves 1, 3, and 5 are called impulse waves.
Waves 2 and 4 are called corrective waves.
Waves a, b, and c correct the main trend made by waves 1 through 5.
The main trend is established by waves 1 through 5 and can be either up or down.
Waves a, b, and c always move in the opposite direction of waves 1 through 5
Elliott Wave theory understands that public sentiment and mass psychology move in 5 waves within a primary trend, and 3 waves in a countertrend. Once a 5 wave move in public sentiment is completed, then it is time for the subconscious sentiment of the public to shift in the opposite direction, which is simply a natural cause of events in the human psyche, and not the operative effect from some form of “news.”
The theory isolates waves identified as motive waves that form a trend, are always subdivided into 5 lower-degree waves, alternating again between motive and corrective character, so that waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulses, and waves 2 and 4 are smaller retraces of waves 1 and 3.
In a bullish market, the impulse phase will move upward while the corrective phase will move downward.
In a bearish market, the impulse phase will move downward and the corrective phase will move upward.
Elliott Wave Theory holds that each wave within a wave count contains a complete 5-3 wave count of a smaller cycle.
Fibonacci numbers provide the mathematical foundation for the Elliott Wave Theory. The Fibonacci number sequence is made by simply starting at 1 and adding the previous number to arrive at the new number (i.e., 0+1=1, 1+1=2, 2+1=3, 3+2=5, 5+3=8, 8+5=13, etc).
Each of the cycles that Elliott defined is comprised of a total wave count that falls within the Fibonacci number sequence.
Elliott Wave Theory holds that each wave within a wave count contains a complete 5-3 wave count of a smaller cycle.
The longest wave count is called the Grand Supercycle. Grand Supercycle waves are comprised of Supercycles, and Supercycles are comprised of Cycles.
This process continues into Primary, Intermediate, Minute, Minuette, and Sub-Minuette waves. There is general agreement among Elliott Wave practitioners that the most recent Grand Supercycle began in 1932 and that the final fifth wave of this cycle began at the market bottom in 1982.
1.4 Elliott Wave Cycle
Grand Super Cycle : Multi-century
Super Cycle : Multi-decade (about 40–70 years)
Cycle : One year to several years (or even several decades under an Elliott Extension)
Primary : A few months to a couple of years
Intermediate : Weeks to months
Minor : Weeks
Minute : Days
Minuette : Hours
Sub-minuette : Minutes
Determining where one wave starts and another wave ends can be sometimes subjective. Its predictive value is dependent on an accurate wave count. The recent developments of Elliott wave theory state that market trends in both corrective and impulse structure which is an improvement compared to the old theory. The Most Important Update on Elliott Wave Theory in Today's Market. The recent developments of Elliott wave theory state that market trends in both corrective and impulse structure which is an improvement compared to the old theory. The most important change in today’s market compared to the one in the 1930s is in the definition of a trend and counter-trend move.
There are four major classes of the market: Stock market, Forex, Commodities, and Bonds. The Elliott Wave Theory was originally derived from the observation of the stock market, but certain markets such as forex exhibit more of a ranging market.
In today’s market, 5 waves move still happens in the market, but we often see that a 3 that 3 waves move happens more frequently in the market than a 5 waves move. In addition, the market can keep moving in a corrective structure in the same direction. In other words, the market can trend in a corrective structure; it keeps moving in the sequence of 3 waves, getting a pullback, then continuing in the same direction again in a 3 waves corrective move. Thus, in today’s market, trends do not have to be in 5 waves and trends could turn into 3 waves. It’s important not to force the 5 waves when trying to find the trend and label the chart.
1.5 The Elliott Wave Principle
The Elliott Wave Principle postulates that collective investor psychology, or crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These mood swings create patterns evidenced in the price movements of markets at every degree of trend or time scale. It is a method of technical analysis based on crowd psychology.
2. Fibonacci
2.1 What is Fibonacci
Leonardo Fibonacci da Pisa is a 13th-century mathematician who discovered the Fibonacci sequence. In 1242 he published an article that introduced the decimal system. The basis of the work came from a two-year study of the pyramids at Giza. Fibonacci is most famous for its Fibonacci Summation series.
Several Fibonacci indices can be created in a table, where one Fibonacci number (numerator) is divided by another Fibonacci number (denominator). These indices, and various other derivatives of them, appear everywhere in nature and in financial markets. They usually indicate levels where strong resistance and support will be found. They are easily seen in nature (shell spirals, flower petals, tree branch structures, etc.), art, geometry, architecture, and music.
Fibonacci sequence, in which each number is the sum of the two preceding ones. The sequence commonly starts from 0 and 1, although some authors start the sequence from 1 and 1 or sometimes (as did Fibonacci) from 1 and 2. Starting from 0 and 1, the first few values in the sequence are:
Fibonacci number sequence 1+1=2, 1+2=3, 2+3=5, 3+5=8, 5+8=13,8+13=21 ,…..
Succeeding numbers we have 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55,89 to infinity. In the eighth series, by dividing 55 by 89, you have the golden mean: 0.618. If you divide 89 by 55 you have 1.618.
2.2 Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci retracement in technical analysis and Elliott wave theory refers to a market correction (countertrend) that must end in the support or resistance areas indicated by key Fibonacci levels. The market is then expected to turn around and resume trending again in the primary direction.
Retracement
14.6% (0.146)
23.6% (0.236)
38.2% (0.382)
61.8% (0.618)
76.4% (0.764)
85.4% (0.854)
50% (0.5) - This ratio is not a Fibonacci ratio, but it's still used a lot.
2.3 Fibonacci Extension
The Fibonacci extension refers to the movement of the market with the primary trend into areas of support and resistance at key Fibonacci levels where target profit is measured. Traders use the Fibonacci extension to determine their target profit.
Extensions
61.8% (0.618)
100% (1.00)
123.6% (1.236)
161.8% (1.618) - This ratio is the most important and is called GOLDEN RATIO
200% (2.00)
261.8% (2.618)
323.6% (3.236)
423.6% (4.236)
681% (6.81).
2.4 Correlation Between Wave and Fibonacci Patterns
The financial markets and price action are driven by the collective psychology of the markets. Some traders might instantly say that a big news event clearly creates huge price movements. They do, but perhaps it’s the market perception of the news that ultimately drives price. Simply said, is the news that drives price or the market reaction to the news that impacts price? In our view, it’s the market reaction that really matters, not the news itself or even our reaction. The main element is market psychology. For us, the best methods for analyzing market psychology are the Elliott Wave Theory, impulse, correction, swings, and overall market structure. Wave analysis identifies repetitive patterns based on the market’s psychology.
The Wave patterns repeat on all time frames, which makes it Fractal in nature. There are underlying patterns that repeat in a similar way on all scales. This phenomenon can be seen in both natural systems, like weather and climate, and artificial elements like road traffic and economics. This includes the financial markets in general and the Forex and CFD markets specifically. The Forex market is Fractal in nature, which means that similar price patterns repeat in all time frames. Price moves in waves of impulsive and correction. Impulse and corrections are all swings within the bigger market structure. Elliott Wave has been used by some of the most successful traders on Wall Street.
3. Elliott Wave Types
There are two types of Elliott Wave -
4. Motive Wave(Impulse)
4.1 What is Motive Wave?
A motive wave is a price movement in the direction of the main trend. Motive waves are subdivided into five waves with certain characteristics and always move in the same direction as the trend of one larger degree.
4.2 Types of Motive Wave
There are two different variations of a 5-wave move which is considered a motive wave:
Impulse
Diagonal
4.3 Impulse Motive Wave
Elliott wave rules and guidelines :
Impulse waves subdivide into 5 waves.
Wave 1, 3, and 5 sub-waves are themselves impulse.
Wave 2 can’t retrace more than the beginning of wave 1.
Wave 3 can’t be the shortest.
Wave 4 can’t overlap with wave 1.
Wave 5 needs to come with RSI divergence.
Runs in 5-9-13-17-21-25 swings continuation.
Correlation of Fibonacci with Elliot Waves:
Wave 2 is usually 50%, 61.8%, 76.4%, or 85.4% of wave 1.
Wave 3 is usually 161.8% of wave 1-2, but can also be 200%, 261.8%, and 323.6% of wave 1-2.
Wave 4 could be 14.6%, 23.6%, or 38.2% of wave 3 but no more than 50%.
Wave 5=wave1 or 61.8% of wave 1-3, or 123.6%- 161.8% of wave 4.
Impulse can also have two types -
Impulse with Extension
Impulse with Truncation
4.3.1 Impulse with Extension
The vast majority of impulse waves do contain an extension in one and only one of their three impulsive sub-waves (1, 3, or 5). Extensions are elongated impulses with exaggerated subdivisions. Extensions frequently occur in the third wave in the stock market and forex market, however, commodities markets normally develop extensions in the fifth wave.
4.3.2 Impulse with Truncation
Truncation is very rare and it happens when a fifth wave does not go beyond the end of the third. Truncation gives a warning of weakness or strength in the market. ( in an uptrend or a downtrend).
4.4 Diagonal Motive Wave
There are two types of Diagonal -
Ending Diagonal
Leading Diagonal
4.4.1 Ending Diagonal
An ending diagonal is a special type of wave that occurs primarily in the fifth wave of an impulse. A small percentage of ending diagonals appear in the C wave position of A-B- C formations.
Guidelines:
It mostly appears in the fifth wave of an impulse
It can also appear in wave C of a zigzag
Characterized by overlapping waves 1 and 4 and the wedge shape
Must have momentum divergence
Each subwave is subdivided into three (3-3-3-3-3) or five (5-3-5-3-5)
4.4.2 Leading Diagonal
A Leading Diagonal this pattern appears in the first wave position of impulses and It can also appear in wave A of a zigzag.
Guidelines:
It mostly appears in the first wave of an impulse
It can also appear in wave A of a zigzag
Characterized by overlapping waves 1 and 4 and the wedge shape
Must have momentum (RSI) divergence
Subdivision can be 5-3-5-3-5 or 3-3-3-3-3
4.5 Motive Sequence
We saw that Motive waves move in the same direction as the primary trend, but in today’s time, it doesn’t necessarily have to be on impulse. As we will see later, a bullish sequence is an incomplete sequence of waves in an up trend. The structure of the waves can be corrected, but the sequence of the swings will be able to tell us whether the move is over or whether we should expect an extension in the existing direction.
The motive sequence is related to the Fibonacci number sequence. If we detect that the number of swings on the chart is one of the numbers in the motive sequence, then we can expect the current trend to extend further.
5. Corrective Wave (Structure)
Corrective waves are waves that move against the trend to a greater degree. Corrective waves have much more variety and are less clearly identifiable compared to impulse waves. There are five types of corrective patterns: Zigzag (5-3-5), Flat (3-3-5), triangle (3-3-3-3-3), Double three-A combination of two corrective patterns, Triple three-a combination of three corrective patterns.
It is sometimes difficult to identify corrective patterns until they are completed. Both trends and countertrends can unfold into corrective patterns in the current market. Corrective waves are probably best defined as waves that move in threes, but never in fives. Only the impulse waves are five.
5.1 Zigzag
Guidelines:
A corrective 3 waves labeled as ABC
Subdivision of waves A and C are impulse / diagonal
Wave B can be any corrective structure
Zigzag is 5-3-5 structure
Both wave A and C need to have RSI divergence
Wave C needs to erase divergence with respect to wave A
Fibonacci Correlation:
Wave B is usually 50%, 61.8%, 76.4%, or 85.4% of wave A
Wave C is usually 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave A
If wave C exceeds 161.8% of wave A, it can become wave 3 of an incomplete impulse
5.2 Flat
There are three types of flats: Regular, Irregular & Running.
5.2.1 Regular Flat
Guidelines:
A corrective 3 waves tagged as ABC
The flat is a, 3-3-5 structure
The subdivision of waves A and B is 3 waves
Wave A and B can be any corrective structure
Subdivision of wave C is an impulse
Wave C needs to have RSI divergence within itself
Wave C needs to erase RSI divergence with respect
Wave B does not retrace more than the beginning of wave A to wave A
Wave B round 90% or more retracement of wave A
Wave C is typically 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave AB
Fibonacci Correlation:
Wave B = 90% of wave A
Wave C = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave AB
5.2.2 Irregular Flat
Guidelines:
A corrective 3 waves tagged as ABC
The flat is a,3-3-5 structure
The subdivision of waves A and B is 3 waves
Subdivision of wave C is an impulse
Wave A and B can be any corrective structure
Wave C needs to have RSI divergence within itself
Wave C needs to erase RSI divergence with respect to wave A
Wave B retraces more than the beginning of wave A
Fibonacci Correlation:
Wave B goes beyond the start of wave A. Normally 123.6% of wave A
Wave C = 123.6% or 161.8% of wave AB. Sometimes can reach 261.8% of wave AB.
Wave B must have momentum divergence with the start of wave A
If wave B goes beyond 1.618% of A, is not considered a the FLAT
5.2.3 Running Flat
Guidelines:
A corrective 3 waves tagged as ABC
The flat is a 3-3-5 structure
The subdivision of waves A and B is 3 waves
Subdivision of wave C is an impulse
Wave A and B can be any corrective structure
Wave C needs to have RSI divergence
Wave C needs to erase RSI divergence with respect to wave
Wave B retraces more than the beginning of wave A
Wave C does not pass wave A
Fibonacci Correlation:
Wave B goes beyond the start of wave A. Normally 123.6% of wave A
If wave B goes beyond 1.618% of A, is not considered a FLAT
Wave B must have momentum divergence with the start of wave A
Wave C = 61.8% or 100% of wave AB
5.3 Triangles
A triangle is a sideways movement that is associated with decreasing volume and volatility. Triangles have 5 sides and each side is subdivided into 3 waves hence forming a 3-3-3-3-3 structure.
Guidelines:
Corrective structure tagged as ABCDE
Subdivided into three (3-3-3-3-3). Usually happens in wave B or wave 4
Subdivision of ABCDE can be either ABC, WXY, or Flat
RSI also needs to support the triangle in every time frame
5.4 Double Threes
Double three is a sideways combination of two corrective patterns. We’ve already looked at several corrective patterns including zigzag, flat, and triangle. When two of these corrective patterns are combined together, we get a double three.
Guidelines:
A combination of two corrective structures tagged as WXY
Wave W, X, and Y subdivision is a WXY
WXY is a 7-swing structure
W of ( Y ) should have RSI divergence
Should end without RSI divergence
If no RSI divergence W of ( Y ) and ( W ), there is a risk of a truncation
Fibonacci Correlation:
Wave X is normally 50%, 61.8%, 76.4%, or 85.4% of wave W
Wave Y is commonly 100% or 123.6% of wave W
Wave Y must not pass 161.8% of wave W
5.5 Triple Threes
Triple Three is a sideways combination of three corrective patterns in Elliott Wave Theory.
Guidelines:
A combination of three corrective structures labeled as WXYZ
Wave W, Y subdivision can be abc, wxy, or wxyz
Wave X can be any corrective structure
WXYZ is an 11-swing structure minimum
The same number of swings as a diagonal
Must end without RSI divergence
Fibonacci Correlation:
Wave X is normally 50%, 61.8%, 76.4%, or 85.4% of wave W
Wave Y = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave W
Wave Y must not pass 161.8% of wave W
6. Sequence
6.1 Motive / Impulse Sequence
5-9-13-17-21-25-29-33-37-41-45… and so on is a Motive (Impulse Sequence)
The motive Sequence starts with 5 and the next number in the series is obtained by adding 4, the Sequence is performed with further increments of 4. An Impulse (Motive wave) should always have the number of swings shown above.
Impulse Wave / Diagonals Sequence
Regular Impulses run in the Series of 5-9-13-17-21… and so on with further increments of 4. A Leading diagonal could run in the Impulse Series of 5-9-13-17-21-25 and so on or a corrective Series of 3-7-11-15-19-23 and so on. An Ending diagonal structure runs always in a corrective Sequence of 3-7-11-15-19-23 and so on. The Motive Sequence must always end with momentum divergence (RSI).
6.2 Corrective Sequence
3-7-11-15-19-23-27-31-35-39-43-43 and so on is a Corrective Sequence. Corrective Sequence starts with 3 and the next number in the Sequence is obtained by adding 4 so the Sequence is performed with further increments of Corrective Sequence must always have the number of swings shown above. All Corrective Sequences must end without momentum (RSI) divergence: Zigzags, Flat structures, Triangles Double Threes, and Triple Threes.
Types of Sequence
Sequences can be seen in both bullish and bearish markets and we have two types of Sequences - Bullish Sequence and Bearish Sequence. A trend can be in 5 waves (Impulsive Sequence) and correction in 3 waves (Corrective Sequence ) but also every 5 wave move becomes a 3 wave move in a higher time frame (after 3 waves back and another 5 waves move to the upside). So markets can trend in both Impulsive and Corrective Sequence. Also and in addition, most of our markets trend in corrective Serie except for Stock markets which mainly trend in Impulsive Sequences.
6.3 Incomplete Sequence
An incomplete Sequence in an up trend is called a Bullish Sequence. An incomplete Sequence in a downtrend is called a Bearish Sequence.
A Bullish / Bearish Sequence can happen in both Impulsive and Corrective Structures. Regular Impulse will have 5 swings, when wave 3 is extended, there would be 9 swings, when there are two nests, there would be 13 swings, and so on. When one of the waves in an Impulse wave is extended, 7 swings would be an incomplete Sequence as we need 9 to end the Sequence. A Corrective Bullish Sequence appears in an uptrend in the Sequence of 3-7-11-15 and so on. A Sequence is incomplete until the correct number of swings are not done, So 5 swings in a corrective Sequence is an incomplete Sequence once we need at least 7 to complete the Sequence. A 5 swings Sequence but without momentum (RSI) divergence could be an early indication of a Truncation and the Sequence. Swing number 5 in a corrective Sequence usually ends in 61.8 – 76.4% of the first 3 swings and must come with momentum (RSI) divergence to be considered a valid incomplete Sequence.
7. Cycle/ Fibonacci
There are different degrees of Cycle (Long-term, Medium-Term, Short-term).
A bullish Cycle is a Sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bearish Cycle is a Sequence of lower highs and lower lows. If the market is moving corrective then the Sequence needs to be intact and the relationship should be intact. If the market is in Impulse then the W 4 can pass the beginning of wave 3 but cannot pass the beginning of the Cycle. A break of the Sequence in a corrective move is a change of trend or the end of the internal Cycle.
Cycle /RSI/Trendline
When a trend channel breaks (either in price or RSI), it’s an early indication that the Cycle may have ended and a new Cycle may begin. We use RSI and Trendline channels to determine a new Cycle. An uptrend is a Sequence of higher highs and higher lows the trend should be up until the Sequence is completed. A downtrend will be a Sequence of lower lows and lowers highs, the trend should be down until the Sequence is completed. A Cycle is trading within an established trend channel in price and RSI. The market runs in Cycles and the Cycles can be seen within the RSI. Wave 5 in a motive wave needs to provide divergence and needs to be seen in every time frame within the RSI, Each subdivision of the motive waves needs to provide RSI divergence.
Note that the 3-wave move did not provide divergence and should not pass the start of the main cycle. The Flats cannot pass at the start of the main cycle.
8. Distinguish between Cycle and Sequence
Cycles are part of the sequence: Cycles are an advance and a decline, which create the sequences
9. Distinguish between Structure and Sequence
Structures are like impulse and corrective sequences. When we talk about Structure in general, we mean that the movement is already completed or should be completed very soon ( Impulse Waves 5, 9 or 13, or 17. Main Diagonal, Final Diagonal Impulse Extension). (Corrective, ABC, WXY, XXYZ, Triangles, Planes). The Sequence ends in a Structure and when it is not complete it helps us to predict the missing swings/waves with the help of Fibonacci and RSI, Trendline. As we only buy or sell when the sequence is incomplete, to facilitate the presentation of our Product (Current Structure) we use the Bullish, Bearish, and Sideways Structure to be more comprehensive, and thus be able to suggest an aggressive technical target.
10. Market Correlation
10.1 The most important groups in the Market:
Indexes – SPX, DAX, FTSE, S&P, ES_F, DJIA, Nasdaq, RUSSEL, AAPL, FTSE, DAX, IBEX, Eurostoxx50, NIKKEI, ASX, HangSeng, TASI, NIFTY.
USDX – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, USDNOK, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDSEK, USDPLN.
Yen group – USDJPY, GPBJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPD,CADJPY, NZDJPY, CHFJPY, TNX
Commodities currencies – AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD
Commodities- Gold, silver, Copper, Oil, NATGAS, Soybean, Corn, Sugar, Wheat, Coffee
10.2 Types of Correlation
In the same directions and swings
With the same swing, but not in the same direction
10.3 We have 3 Drivers on the market
There are 3 drivers in the market -
The Market periodically changes the Driver that will dominate. Market correlation is key and needs to be used in the right way. We do not only analyze from a technical point of view with the tools that we have an instrument, but we also see the correlations with the market in order to support more powerfully the way in which we position ourselves.
Let's give just a few examples:
In an ideal situation, we have: Higher Indices, Higher USDX Pairs, Higher Yen Pairs, lower USDX and Sideways USDJPY, and Higher Commodities.
In a situation where the driver is the USDX we have: Dollar higher, Yen pairs lower, Indices and USDJPY sideways- higher, and Gold and Silver Low.
When the Driver is the Indices we have: Indices are Higher, USDX and Dollar pairs get sideways, Yen gets weak, Yen pairs higher, and Crude and other commodities higher.
When the driver is YEN, we have: Yen pairs lower USDJPY lower, Yen is strong, Indices lower, and USDX sideways.
Drivers, don't always go up or down at the same time, they can trade sideways or the opposite.
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